The dovish tone adopted by central banks of economies of the Cedi’s trading partner currencies gave the local currency some respite as it ended a thirteen week losing streak against the Dollar on the Bank of Ghana (BoG) inter-bank trading platform. On the Open Forex Market (oanda.com), the Cedi maintained a resilient performance as it gathered momentum to build on previous week’s gains against the US Dollar, the British Pound Sterling, and the Euro. Offshore investors’ participation in the recent 5-year Government of Ghana Treasury bond as well as ESLA Plc’s 10-year bond which raised a total of GHC 1 billion boosted forex supply as the Cedi climbed to its highest in 3 weeks against the Dollar on the BoG inter-bank trading platform. On the Open Forex Market (oanda.com), the Cedi rose to a 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 months high against the Dollar, the Pound, and the Euro respectively.
The Cedi’s performance at the start of the week comes ahead of a crucial Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the BoG meeting to review recent economic developments to enable the committee to appropriately position the benchmark policy rate going forward. After putting the policy easing stance on hold on the back of emerging risks to the disinflationary outlook, it is expected that the MPC will continue its policy easing stance as pressure on the consumer price eases. Data released by the Ghana Statistical Services indicated that the inflation rate for June fell by 30 basis points (bps) adding to previous month’s 10 bps drop. The MPC could also stall the policy rate at the current level to reduce portfolio outflow which could dampen the Cedi’s recent gains.
On the BoG inter-bank trading platform, the Cedi appreciated against the Dollar and the Pound but failed to extend its weekly gains against the single currency to three weeks. It gained 0.11% and 0.10%, week-on-week, against the Dollar and the Pound to begin the week at GHC 5.2551 and GHC 6.5783 from previous week’s trading values of GHC 5.2611 and GHC 6.5848 respectively. The Cedi posted its first weekly gain after several weeks of losses against the greenback as expectations of US Fed rate cut soared. Broad weakness clouding the US economic outlook amid uncertainties from the fallout of trade war with China has prompted a Fed rate cut, weighing on the US currency. Against the Euro, the Cedi depreciated by 0.24% to trade at GHC 5.9147 at the start of the week from previous week’s trade value of GHC 5.9004.
On the Open Forex Market (oanda.com), the Cedi gained 1.37%, 1.20%, and 0.96% to trade at GHC 5.3533, GHC 6.7145, and GHC 6.0319 at the start of the week from previous week’s trade figures of GHC 5.4278, GHC 6.7963, and GHC 6.0906 against the Dollar, the Pound, and the Euro respectively. The Pound fell for the second consecutive time this week against the Cedi on Brexit concerns amid signs of a rapidly worsening economic outlook and prospects of UK rate cut.
According to the Bank of Ghana inter-bank rates, the Ghanaian Cedi began 2019 at GHC 4.8291 [January 2nd, 2019] against the US Dollar and is currently selling at GHC 5.2551 [July 15th, 2019] indicating an 8.82% year-to-date depreciation. Similarly, on the Open Forex Market (oanda.com), the Ghanaian Cedi traded at GHC 4.8780 [January 2nd, 2019] and is currently trading at GHC 5.3533 [July 15th, 2019], representing a 9.74% year-to-date depreciation of the Cedi against the US Dollar.