Treasury Rates [April 10, 2023]

Security	Interest Rates
91 – Day Bill	19.6934%
182 – Day Bill	22.2469%
364 – Day Bill	26.9585%

Treasury yields maintained their upward trend this week amidst a reversal of expectations of slowing down inflation as an OPEC+ induced price hike in crude oil threatens to renew inflationary pressures. On the domestic front, escalations in the prices of foodstuffs similarly pose threats to the recent downward inflation trajectory with the central bank already warning of the persistence of price pressures. It is expected that the prevalence of upward price pressures on consumer goods and services coupled with the government’s overreliance on short-term securities will further push Treasury yields upward in the short to medium term.

The yield on the 91-day bill went up by 31 basis points (bps) this week, it’s third consecutive strengthening, to build on last week’s 51 bps gain. It climbed to 19.6934% this week from 19.3881% posted last week.

The yield on the 182-day bill also went up by 39 bps to build on last week’s 42 bps gain. It rose from 21.8569% posted last week to clear at 22.2469% this week.

The 364-day bill came in as the biggest mover this week, registering a 129 bps to recover from its previous issuance’s 116 bps decline. It cleared at 26.9585% this week from 25.6637% posted last week.

Week-on-Week Changes

Tenor	Previous	Current	w-o-w Change	w-o-w % Change	Year-to-Date
91 – Day	19.3881%	19.6934%	0.31	1.57%	-44.31%
182 – Day	21.8569%	22.2469%	0.39	1.78%	-38.17%
364 – Day	25.6637%	26.9585%	1.29	5.05%	-24.89%

Auction results of tender 1845 further confirmed a renewed strong interest in government papers as rates begins to pick up once more. The government achieved an oversubscription rate of 6.5%.

A total of GHS 1,883.01 million worth of bids were tendered for the 91, 182, and 364 tenors against the government’s target amount of 1,767.00 million. The government accepted all GHS 1,293.34 million and GHS 422.18 million worth of bids tendered for the 91 and 182 tenors but accepted GHS 140.38 million out of the GHS 167.50 million worth of bids tendered for the 364 tenor.

In the week ahead, we expect the government to return to the domestic market in an attempt to mobilize GHS 1,666.00 million from 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day bills.