Treasury Rates [November 20, 2023]

Security	Interest Rates
91 – Day Bill	29.8420%
182 – Day Bill	31.8753%
364 – Day Bill	33.4468%

After a surprising decline in Treasury yields last week, the growing downward pressures on the government’s shorter-dated papers continued this week buoyed by expectations of slowing down inflation numbers. The Treasury auction held last Friday witnessed mixed results as the yield on the 91-day and 364-day bills saw a decline in line with the recent ease in the consumer price index and that on the 182-day recorded a marginal increase. The latest inflation data released by the Ghana Statistical Service put the inflation rate at 35.2%, the lowest in more than one year. It is expected that Treasury yields will undergo a further decline as the government hopes to end the year with an inflation print at 31.3%.

The yield on the 91-day bill went down by 10 basis points (bps) this week, adding onto last week’s 13 bps decline. It cleared at 29.7427% this week from 29.8420% posted last week.

The 182-day bill was little changed this week as it went up marginally to clear at 31.8764% this week from last week’s 31.8753% level.

The yield on the 364-day bill saw a marginal decline this week after it registered a huge decline last week at 25 bps. It went down to clear at 33.4456% from 33.4468% posted last week.

Week-on-Week Changes

Tenor	Previous	Current	w-o-w Change	w-o-w % Change	Year-to-Date
91 – Day	29.8420%	29.7427%	-0.10	-0.33%	-15.89%
182 – Day	31.8753%	31.8764%	0.00	0.00%	-11.40%
364 – Day	33.4468%	33.4456%	-0.00	-0.00%	-6.82%

Auction results of tender 1877 revealed that despite the decline in Treasury yields, investors continued to throng to the government’s short-term papers as the yields remained comparatively more rewarding. Accordingly, for the seventh consecutive time, the government met its target with an oversubscription rate of 14.8%.

A total of GHS 3,748.02 million worth of bids were tendered for the 91, 182, and 364 tenors against the government’s target amount of GHS 3,266.00 million. The government accepted all GHS 568.49 million worth of bids tendered for the 182-day bill and also accepted 99.9% each for the GHS 2,452.72 million and GHS 726.81 million worth of bids tendered for the 91-day and 364-day bills.

In the week ahead, we expect the government to return to the domestic market in an attempt to mobilize GHS 3,587.00 million from 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day bills to meet GHS 3.33 billion worth of maturing papers due next week.