Treasury Rates [December 11, 2023]

Security	Interest Rates
91 – Day Bill	29.5835%
182 – Day Bill	31.9696%
364 – Day Bill	33.4585%

Treasury bill rates seem to have returned to their ever-increasing trajectory after a short reprieve fueled by a decline in the consumer price index as the prices of petroleum products stabilize amid a mild depreciation of the local currency against some of its major trading partner currencies. This week’s Treasury performance comes ahead of the announcement of the November inflation figure where the market expects the inflation rate to trend in the region of the current inflation print of 35.2% ± 5.0%. The direction of the inflation figure will be expected to set the pace for yield movement in the coming weeks.

After sustaining a significant dip last week with an 11 basis points (bps) fall, the yield on the 91-day bill rose this week to recover 2 bps of its loss. It cleared at 29.5835% this week from last week’s 29.5684% level.

The yield on the 182-day bill soared by 21 bps, adding on to last week’s marginal gain. It rose from 31.7638% posted last week to clear at 31.9696% this week.

The 364-day bill was little changed this week as it rose marginally to add to last week’s 21 bps increase. It hardened to 33.4585% this week, up from 33.4445% posted last week.

Week-on-Week Changes

Tenor	Previous	Current	w-o-w Change	w-o-w % Change	Year-to-Date
91 – Day	29.5684%	29.5835%	0.02	0.05%	-16.34%
182 – Day	31.7638%	31.9696%	0.21	0.65%	-11.15%
364 – Day	33.4445%	33.4585%	0.01	0.04%	-6.79%

Auction results of tender 1880 showed that after last week’s disappointing Treasury performance where demand failed to meet the government’s ambitious target, demand came in strong this week to beat the government’s target as investors renewed their confidence in the government. The government subsequently achieved an oversubscription rate of 5.3%.

A total of GHS 4,127.46 million worth of bids were tendered for the 91, 182, and 364 tenors against the government’s target amount of 3,919.00 million. The government accepted all GHS 1,110.70 million and GHS 481.75 million worth of bids tendered for its 182-day and 364-day bills and accepted 99.9% out of the GHS 1,110.70 million worth of bids tendered for the 91-day bill.

In the week ahead, we expect the government to return to the domestic market in an attempt to mobilize GHS 3,984.00 million from 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day bills to meet GHS 3.71 billion worth of maturing papers due next week.