Treasury Rates [February 12, 2024]

Security	Interest Rates
91 – Day Bill	27.9966%
182 – Day Bill	30.4381%
364 – Day Bill	30.9996%

Ahead of the release of the first consumer price index data for the year where the market will be bracing up for a further easing of the inflation rate as the domestic economy continues to remain relatively stable, Treasury bill rates fell at this week’s open, adding to the recent string of weaknesses seen over the past few weeks. The inflation numbers have been on a persistent decline since the second half of the year, forcing downward pressure on Treasury yields this year and recently the first monetary policy loosening in more than two years. It is expected that yields will continue to see a further weakening into the medium term.

The yield on the 91-day bill maintained its steady decline, coming in with another 30 basis points (bps) dip this week. It fell to 27.9966% this week, down from 28.2982% this week.

The 182-day bill fell by a higher margin this week with a 36 bps dip to build on last week’s 30 bps decline. It edged down from 30.7936% posted last week to clear at 30.4381% this week.

The 364-day bill was the biggest mover this week with a dip of 40 bps similar to the margin of loss recorded last week. It cleared at 30.9996% this week from 31.3995% recorded last week.

Week-on-Week Change

Tenor	Previous	Current	w-o-w Change	w-o-w Change (%)	Year-to-Date
91 – Day	28.2982%	27.9966%	-0.30	-1.07%	-4.26%
182 – Day	30.7936%	30.4381%	-0.36	-1.15%	-4.53%
364 – Day	31.3995%	30.9996%	-0.40	-1.27%	-4.58%

Auction results of tender 1889 showed that expectations of slowing down inflation numbers had a minimal bearing on the demand for Treasury papers as investors continued to throng to the government’s short-term papers on the back of the recent positive real returns. The government’s target was subsequently oversubscribed by 51.8%.

A total of GHS 6,964.00 million worth of bids were tendered for the 91, 182, and 364 tenors against the government’s target amount of GHS 4,587.00 million. The government accepted all GHS 1,627.32 million and GHS 2,287.45 million worth of bids tendered for its 182-day and 364-day bills and accepted 96.14% of the total bids tendered for the 91-day bill.

In the week ahead, we expect the government to return to the domestic market in an attempt to mobilize GHS 4,865.00 million from 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day bills to meet GHS 4.15 billion worth of maturing papers due next week.