Treasury Rates [February 19, 2024]

Security	Interest Rates
91 – Day Bill	27.9966%
182 – Day Bill	30.4381%
364 – Day Bill	30.9996%

Treasury bill rates extended their downward trend for the eighth consecutive time this week despite a surprise U-turn in the inflation trajectory after the inflation rate began the year posting its first increase in the last six months to January 2024. According to data released by the Ghana Statistical Service, the pickup in the inflation reading came on the back of increases in the prices of non-food items as well as general price increases in the first month of the new year as month-on-month inflation rate climbed up by 2.0%, up from 1.2% in January. Yields on short-term Treasury papers are expected to continue to post some declines in line with efforts by the government to put the economy back on track.

The 91-day bill recorded a modest decline this week at 10 basis points (bps) compared to last week’s 30 bps dip. It fell from 27.9966% posted last week to clear at 27.8933% this week.

The yield on the 182-day bill posted a minimal dip at 4 bps, softer than last week’s 36 bps decrease. It cleared at 30.3946% this week, down from 30.4381% posted last week.

The 364-day bill added 10 bps loss to its recent decline to widen its year-to-date loss to 4.89%. It moved down from 30.9996% last week to clear at 30.8988% this week.

Week-on-Week Change

Tenor	Previous	Current	w-o-w Change	w-o-w Change (%)	Year-to-Date
91 – Day	27.9966%	27.8933%	-0.10	-0.37%	-4.61%
182 – Day	30.4381%	30.3946%	-0.04	-0.14%	-4.67%
364 – Day	30.9996%	30.8988%	-0.10	-0.33%	-4.89%

Auction results of tender 1890 revealed that demand remained strong as investors maintained their strong taste for the government’s short-term assets on the back of the emergence of positive real returns. The government subsequently achieved an oversubscription rate of 16.58%.

A total of GHS 5,671.81 million worth of bids were tendered for the 91, 182, and 364 tenors against the government’s target amount of GHS 4,865.00 million. The government accepted all GHS 2,428.92 million, GHS 1,282.57, and GHS 1,960.32 million worth of bids tendered for its 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day bills.

In the week ahead, we expect the government to return to the domestic market in an attempt to mobilize GHS 6,268.00 million from 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day bills to meet GHS 5.44 billion worth of maturing papers due next week.