Treasury Rates [July 8, 2024]

Security	Interest Rates
91 – Day Bill	24.7899%
182 – Day Bill	26.7468%
364 – Day Bill	27.7878%

Ahead of this week’s announcement of the consumer price index where already the market is anticipating that the inflation reading will remain high in the range of 20.0% to 25.0% at the close of the first half of the year, Treasury bill rates came in less stable this week compared with last week’s relative stability witnessed. The inflation print for June will be expected to remain above 20.0% as the local currency continues to remain troubled, having closed the second quarter with a year-to-date (YTD) depreciation of 22.74% against the US Dollar. Treasury yields are expected to maintain their relative stability on the back of expectations of higher inflation numbers.

After posting some minimal gain last week, the yield on the 91-day bill lost traction this week as it declined by 8 basis points (bps) this week. It cleared at 24.7899% this week from 24.8677% posted last week.

The 182-day bill recorded a 5 bps dip this week after registering a tiny decline last week. It moved down from 26.8011% recorded last week to print at 26.7468% this week.

For the second consecutive time, the yield on the 364-day bill remained unchanged at 27.7878% this week with a YTD dip of 14.46%.

Week-on-Week Change

Tenor	Previous	Current	w-o-w Change	w-o-w Change (%)	Year-to-Date
91 – Day	24.8677%	24.7899%	-0.08	-0.31%	-15.22%
182 – Day	26.8011%	26.7468%	-0.05	-0.20%	-16.11%
364 – Day	27.7878%	27.7878%	0.00	0.00%	-14.46%

Auction results of tender 1910 revealed the government achieved the third successive oversubscription of its short-term papers as investors expect that the prevailing higher inflation expectations will cup the rate of decline in yields. Accordingly, the government’s target was oversubscribed by 3.0%.

A total of GHS 3,344.64 million worth of bids were tendered for the 91, 182, and 364 tenors against the government’s target amount of GHS 3,247.00 million. The government accepted all GHS 2,510.85 million, GHS 651.11 million, and GHS 182.68 million worth of bids tendered for the 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day bills respectively.

In the week ahead, we expect the government to return to the domestic market in an attempt to mobilize GHS 4,721.00 million from 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day bills to meet GHS 4.45 billion worth of maturing papers due next week.