Inflation Begins Second Half of the Year at 4.6%

In a surprising turn of events, Ghana’s inflation reading appears to be resuming its disinflationary trajectory, as consumer price index data at the start of the second half of the year revealed easing price pressures on consumer goods and services. Ghana’s inflation rate, after embarking on a persistent declining path for more than a year, lost steam as crude-oil-induced price pressures began to bite in the second quarter of 2026, throwing the disinflationary path into disarray. However, as the world adjusts to the ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and as crude oil prices show less volatility, fears of global inflation heating appear to be cooling off. This, combined with easing price pressures on some key staples, fed into the headline inflation rate, sending Ghana’s inflation reading in July to a two-month low.

According to data released by Ghana’s statistical office, the headline inflation rate slumped to 4.6% in July, down from 5.30% in June, with a significant number of inflation indicators showing subdued readings. The headline inflation reading was also supported by a calmer month-on-month inflation figure, as inflation for the month of July was reported at 0.1%, a second consecutive drop from a high of 1.1% in May. The sticky uptick in July’s inflation readings came on the back of a relatively stable Cedi, drops in the prices of petroleum products at the pumps, and some declines in the prices of food items such as Cocoyam leaves, Garden Eggs, Maize, among others.

Having risen to a five-month high in June at 3.9%, inflation on food items slowed down to a three-month low in July at 3.1%, as deflation numbers recorded by Cereal products, Milk & other dairy products, Oils & fats, and Tea & other plant products drove the group’s annual inflation down. Month-on-month food inflation eased to a deflation of 0.1% in July from a rate of +0.1% in June. Some key price drivers were Fish and other seafood, Cereal products, and Oils and fats, with inflation rates of -3.6%, -2.5%, and -0.5%, respectively.

Annual inflation for the non-food inflation basket was sticky downwards in July, having registered a significant jump last month to a more than six-month high. It printed at 6.1% in July, down from 6.3% in June. Month-on-month non-food inflation unexpectedly ticked higher, climbing up to 0.5% in July from 0.4% in June, as price increases in Clothing & footwear, Education services, and Personal care dominated price declines in the other sub-group items.

Across the regions, the inflation rate hovered between -3.8% in the Bono East region and 10.8% in the North East region, with six regions recording inflation rates above the national average. Inflation on both Local and Imported goods reversed the previous month’s path as they both saw a decrease from 6.7% and 2.3% in June to print at 5.9% and 2.0% in July, respectively. For the Goods and Services categorization, inflation equally lowered, edging down to 3.4% and 8.5% in Jul, down from 3.7% and 9.4% in June, respectively.

In line with expectations, the July sitting of the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee saw the committee, by unanimous decision, hold the policy rate at the prevailing 14.0% amid concerns over potential upward adjustments in utility tariffs, coupled with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the associated increase in crude oil prices, which present upside risks to the inflation outlook.